資金決済革命

決済を取り巻く環境は劇的に変化しつつあります。消費者がキャッシュに代わるより便利なものを求めていることは明らかですが、金融機関はこうしたニーズにあまり積極的に答えようとしてこなかったように思われます。一方、この分野は、金融サービスプロバイダにとっては、ブルーオーシャンのようにチャンスが広がっているといえるでしょう。先駆者として新たな決済プロジェクトを投入できる新市場の成長が期待できるからです。
 
既存の決済サービス市場は競争が激化しており、多くの決済オプションが溢れかえったレッドオーシャンです。市場参入を目指すプレーヤーが既存の市場で成功を収めようとするなら、既存の決済手段に取って代われる価値提案を創出する必要があります。 企業活動や消費者の生活により密着する方法を開発しなければなりません。そうなると、金融サービスをめぐる競争のカギは金融業界の外にあるのかもしれません。YouTubeやリッツ・カールトンのような顧客認知、Google やAmazonのような顧客行動予知などがその例です。
 
未来の個人向けの決済サービスは、デジタルネイティブ世代の日常生活における新たな情報と価値移動の基盤として、既存の電子マネーを凌駕する破壊力を持つでしょう。未来の 法人向けの決済サービスは、決済指図と契約を電子化、自動化することで、企業活動の情報と価値移動の源泉を握り、既存のサプライチェーンを革新することが期待されます。

セレントはここに、破壊的なイノベーションと「資金決済革命」の可能性を見出します。

Uncontested market space

The payments environment is undergoing dramatic change, driven by the changing behavior of payment services users. While consumers have clearly expressed a desire for something more convenient than cash, the supply side has been seemingly unwilling to meet this demand. Financial institutions have failed to provide handier and more convenient alternatives to cash. Service providers should see this field as a blue ocean – a market space ripe for pioneering new payments initiatives.

The intense competition over incumbent payments services makes that market a red ocean – a market space crowded with many existing payments options. Would-be players need to create value propositions that can supplant existing payment methods if they wish to succeed. They need to develop ways that allow them to be more intimately intertwined with the activities of corporations and the lives of consumers . Indeed, the key to competition in financial services may lie outside the financial industry, coming from services and businesses that specialize in knowing the customer such as YouTube and Ritz-Carlton.
 
At Celent, we believe that new payments services for retail customers will be a watershed, replacing existing e-money and serving as a platform for information transfer and value transfer for a digital native generation. Next-generation transaction banking services for corporate customers will enable the overhaul of existing supply chains and the exercise of tighter control over corporate information and value transfer through digitizing and liberating contracts and settlement.
 
Celent sees great potential for significant innovation and a "payments revolution" from firms willing to challenge the status-quo despite the apparent immediate obstacles.

WHAT OUTWEIGHS THE CONVENIENCE OF CASH

The situation surrounding financial and payment services has undergone dramatic change. In any era as dynamic as ours, a comprehensive conceptual framework that can serve as a guide pointing toward a better future is essential. Toward this end, Celent uses its payments taxonomy and payments value chain frameworks as lenses to examine evolution in the payment sector. [1] Payments innovation is also informed by the changing behavior of payment services users and exists in the context of the payments value chain. Service providers should see this field as a blue ocean—a market space ripe for pioneering new payment initiatives.

The intense competition over the already existing services, which is called legacy systems in Japan, makes the market a red ocean. There is no room for anything new in the interbank payment settlement systems such as the BOJ-NET or the Zengin; ATM as a cornerstone of cash distribution; and credit card network systems as the most noncash methods of payment. We need to think of some “value proposition” which is new and beyond already existing payment methods. Despite consumers in the digital era hoping for something more convenient than cash, the supply side is not aware of this demand. As a matter of fact, the number of online banking accounts is about 60 million. This accounts for only 20% of the number of ATM cards, which is 300 million. The financial services institutions have failed to provide handier and more convenient services than cash.[2] FSI which are thriving in Japan's growing e-payment market are not very traditional ones so far.[3]

Here, Celent wants to advocate a conceptual system as an open innovation platform that would create a platform layer (the formulation of rules under new frameworks) with an innovation layer (creation of new services within the new framework). The expectation is that this conceptual system could fulfill the role of API provider in the era of the API economy. This envisions a situation in which financial institutions use an infrastructure shared with the manufacturing, retail, and logistics industries, using the API to fuse together not only B2B but also B2C information—that is, information about consumer lifestyle and consumption patterns—with financial information to create a blueprint to enable technology to bring relevant financial services into the daily lives of consumers. Historically, the business or commercial information regarding companies and consumers’ lives has been far from integrated; doing so moving forward is aimed at illuminating the flow of related funds and creating a closer and more useful relationship between the two.

In crafting a vision of the financial services of the future, one must ostensibly imagine services that transcend the traditional confines of financial services and are more intimately intertwined with corporations and their activities as well as the lives of consumers. The advent of fintech continues to raise the expectations of financial services customers. Indeed, the key to competition in financial services may lie outside the financial industry, coming from services and businesses that specialize in knowing the customer such as YouTube and Ritz-Carlton, customer behavior prediction such as Google and Amazon, or even referencing how SNS seek to clearly iterate their services and realize simple interactions. In short, meeting these needs and expectations can be seen as a compass that points toward building the financial landscape of the future.

Celent prioritizes the following three points when it envisages “the future of financial services.”

  1. The technology evolution that is taking place through the building of financial market infrastructures: the rise of Bitcoin, Blockchain, and Distributed Ledger Technology (DLT) and their latest examples.
  2. Competition and co-creation in building these financial market infrastructures: Classical technology (ACH, SWIFT, etc., which are equivalent to Japanese Banks’ Payment Clearing Network) VS Emerging Information and Value Transfer (Next-generation digital gift card service networks of Gyft[4]  and Chain.com, Ripple’s[5] bi-directional messaging system coupled tightly with distributed ledgers for international banking payments).
  3. Blue Ocean Strategy on payment services: New services based on financial market infrastructures which have resulted from the fusion of old and new techniques; Resultant new digital lifestyle or new digital supply chains. 
  • a) for retail market: inexpensive Peer to Peer (P2P) money transfer services for less frequent and small transfers.
  • b) for corporate market: next-generation transaction banking services where commercial distribution, commodity distribution, and money transfers are all integrated.

These new money transfer services for retail customers will be a total watershed, replacing existing e-money. They will serve as a basis of information transfer and value transfer for digital native generation as well. On the other hand, the next-generation transaction banking services for corporate customers will make it possible to renovate existing supply chains and exercise tighter control over corporate information and value transfer through digitalizing and liberalizing contracts and settlements. Celent sees great potential for significant innovation and a “fund transfer revolution” in these new services.

Figure: Open Innovation Platform

open-innovation-platform

 

This area is explored in depth in the Celent report:

 

「現金」を超える利便性を求めて

金融と決済サービスを巡る情勢は一変した。いつの時代においても、こうした混沌とした時代における羅針盤の構想には、網羅的なフレームワークが不可欠である。セレントは独自の「ペイメントのタクソノミー(分類)」「ペイメントバリューチェーン」と呼ぶフレームワークを用いて考察する[1]が、決済のイノベーションは、決済サービス利用者の行動変化に起因し、その価値連鎖に存在すると考える。この領域で、新時代の決済フロンティアを開拓し、ブルーオーシャンを航海すべきだ。

「日銀ネット」「全銀システム」に代表される銀行間決済インフラ、「現金」流通の要であるATMや、「現金代替手段」であるクレジットカードのネットワーク網は、日本社会のレガシーシステムであり、その領域は既にレッドオーシャンである。構想すべきは、それらが実現していない「利便性」である。デジタル時代の消費者は、「現金」以上の利便性を望んでいないのか?いや、サービス供給者が、その需要に気付いていないだけだ。事実、ATMカードの発行枚数(3億枚)に対して、オンラインバンキングの契約口座数(6千万件)は2割に満たず、金融機関は「現金」以上の利便性を提供していない。[2] また、隆盛する電子マネーの担い手は、今のところ、伝統的な金融機関ではない。[3]

セレントは、「オープンイノベーションプラットフォーム」として、プラットフォームのレイヤ(新たな枠組みでのルールの形成)、イノベーションのレイヤ(新たな枠組み上の新たなサービスの創造)を実現する「構想システム」を提言したい。この「構想システム」には、APIエコノミー時代の「API提供者」としての役割も期待される。金融機関は、製造、小売、流通などの産業界とインフラを共有し、B2Bのみならず、B2C、つまり生活者の生活情報が、APIを通じて金融情報と融合し、いわば、テクノロジーが日常生活の中に、「金融サービス」を「溶かし込む」青写真を想定している。日常生活と企業の商流はこれまでシームレスでなかったが、これからはお金の流れをより身近にし、両者をより密接な関係にしようとしている。

金融の未来図を描くならば、金融が特別で独占的なサービスでなくなり、企業活動や消費生活と融合している図になるだろう。フィンテックの時代、金融サービス利用者の期待は高まり続けている。サービスを競うべき相手は、金融業界の外、ユーチューブやリッツ・カールトンの顧客認知、グーグルやアマゾンの顧客行動予知や優先顧客対応、全てのSNSが展望するサービスの可視化とシンプルなインタラクションかもしれない。その期待に応えることが、金融の未来図の羅針盤となる。

セレントは、「金融サービスの未来図」を構想するうえで、以下の3点が最優先の事柄として重視している。今後もこの重点ポイントでのインサイトを発信してゆく。

  1. 金融インフラを構築する技術の進展: ビットコイン、ブロックチェーン、分散型台帳技術の隆盛と、その先進的なユースケース
  2. 金融インフラの主流を巡るビジネスの攻防: レガシーな技術による金融インフラ(例えば、全銀システムのような各国のACH、SWIFTなど)と、新たに隆盛する、インターネットをフルに活用した情報と価値移動のインフラ(例えば、Gyft[4]とChain.comによる次世代デジタルギフト券サービスネットワーク、Ripple[5]による新たな国際銀行間決済サービスネットワークなど)の競合と共創の関係
  3. 決済サービスのブルーオーシャン: そうした新旧の金融インフラを駆使して提供される新サービスと、それが革新する新たなデジタルライフやサプライチェーン
  • 個人向け:少額低頻度のP2P送金を極めて安価に提供するサービス
  • 法人向け:商流、物流と金流を融合する次世代トランザクションバンキングサービス

個人向けの新決済サービスは、デジタルネイティブ世代の日常生活における新たな情報と価値移動の基盤として、既存の電子マネーを凌駕する破壊力を感じる。法人向けの新決済サービスは、決済指図と契約を電子化、自動化することで、企業活動の情報と価値移動の源泉を握り、既存のサプライチェーンを革新することが期待される。セレントはここに、破壊的なイノベーションと「資金決済革命」の可能性を見出す。

図: オープンイノベーションプラットフォーム

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E-money will play a central role when it comes to information and value transfer in the digital age

The widespread proliferation of electronic money hinges on convenience that transcends that of existing financial services. This convenience is not a replacement for the street corner ATM or convenience store, but rather qualitatively different in that it is part and parcel of the digital lifestyles of consumers.

Until now, financial institutions have gone to great pains to mechanize financial services. But financial services in the digital age must go beyond this to meet the needs of digital natives. This is perhaps best exemplified by person-to-person (P2P) services—namely the transfer of funds between individuals—that are conducted via the Internet.

Now is the time, not to be myopically focused exclusively on improving the bottom line by reducing costs, but rather for players to strive to effectively expand the top line and grow brand value.  There is a distinct possibility that electronic money will play a central role when it comes to information and value transfer in the digital age.

Bloomberg:  Apple’s Fight to Lure Japanese From Cash Starts at Turnstile

 

This area is explored in depth in the Celent reports:

Payments Systems Trends in Japan, Part III: Blueprints for the Next-Generation Zengin System

Innovation in the Japanese Financial Services Industry: Retail Payments

 

DIGITAL8

 

「現金社会」日本で存在感高める電子マネー、取扱額は2桁成長

電子マネーの普及は、既存の金融サービスを凌駕する利便性の提供にかかる。
それは、街角のATMやコンビニの現金の置換ではなく、デジタルライフの中にある。

これまでの金融機関は、金融サービスを機械化して提供することに腐心してきた。
デジタル時代の金融サービスは、デジタルネイティブのニーズを満たす必要がある。
インターネットを使ったP2P(個人間の資金移動)サービスがその代表となろう。

今こそ、コスト削減によるボトムラインの改善に終始せず、
新サービスによるトップラインの拡大とブランド価値の高揚に邁進すべきだ。
電子マネーは、デジタル時代の情報と価値移転の中核となる可能性がある。

ブルームバーグ: 「現金社会」日本で存在感高める電子マネー、取扱額は2桁成長

 

この分野は、以下のセレントレポートに詳しい

日本の銀行業界におけるレガシー・モダナイゼーション パート2:銀行業界への提言

日本の決済システムの動向パート3:全銀システム、次期システムの青写真

日本の金融業界におけるイノベーション:リテールペイメント市場における動向

 

Digital transformation

 

E-money in Japan and South Korea

Japan and South Korea are among the leading countries which have tried to spread the use of e-money from an early stage. Due to the different backgrounds they have, they have been going the separate paths for e-money growth. In recent years, the Japanese e-money market has emerged as one of the important payment methods. Especially with the consumption tax rise from April 2014, the e-money market has received more attention because the usage of loose coins would increase due to the consumption tax rise from 5% to 8%. On the other hand, in South Korea, the e-money market growth has been sluggish because of the heavy usage of credit cards and check cards. Although there are two major e-money providers, T-money and Cashbee, South Korean credit cards and check cards are available for not only big purchases but also for small purchases so consumers do not recognize the need for e-money. In Japan, Suica, e-money from East Japan Railway Company and nanaco, e-money from Seven & I Holdings, exceeded 100 million transactions for a month in March 2014. It is the first time for nanaco to exceed 100 million transactions. All e-money providers have said that transaction volume has been growing. Celent believes that this trend will continue in the future by improving customer experience although one of the obstacles in the way of the e-money market growth has been considered the lack of the customer experience. In South Korea, Kakao Talk, one of the most popular social networking services in South Korea announced that they will launch a mobile wallet service called “Bank Wallet Kakao” in the first half of this year. At the very beginning, this will be used for customer to customer (C2C) payment and will expand to business to customer (B2C) payment. For both countries, the e-money market has entered a new phase although the reasons for growth are different. From the case studies of both countries, we can learn that e-money has diverse potential. I believe that e-money will create a new value and become a more accepted payment method.